FIRE projection
Sequence risk

FIRE projection — real terms

Portfolio composition vs targets

FIRE number
CoastFIRE target
·
Pre-tax
Brokerage
Roth

Milestones

Sequence-of-returns stress test — historical

Real balance trajectory (today's dollars)

Across all historical retirement cohorts

Sensitivity — initial withdrawal rate → historical outcome

Each row funds first-year spending at that initial withdrawal rate, then replays every historical cohort — once on gross spending alone (no SS), once with the plan's SS checks kicking in at each claim age

Notable retirement years