FIRE projection — real terms
Portfolio composition vs targets
FIRE number
CoastFIRE target
·
Pre-tax
Brokerage
Roth
Milestones
Sequence-of-returns stress test — historical
Real balance trajectory (today's dollars)
Across all historical retirement cohorts
Sensitivity — initial withdrawal rate → historical outcome
Each row funds first-year spending at that initial withdrawal rate, then replays every historical cohort — once on gross spending alone (no SS), once with the plan's SS checks kicking in at each claim age